New Economic thrust in April propels Dubai’s Non-Oil Private Economic Conditions

Business conditions in Dubai’s non-oil private sector economy last month improved at the quickest rate in over four years on the rear of a lift in new business and improvement in wholesale and retail sector activity.

The seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Dubai’s Economy Index – a composite indicator designed to allow an outline of operative conditions within the non-oil personal sector economy – edged up from March’s Fifty-seven point six to Fifty-Seven point Nine in April, the very best since Gregorian calendar month 2015.

The Index has registered on top of its semi-permanent trend level of Fifty-Five point two throughout the first four months of 2019.

A number on top of fifty indicates enlargement and below 50 signals contraction within the economy.

“The sharp rise in output and new add April is encouraging because it suggests value growth is fast when a comparatively soft 2018,” as quoted by Khatija Haque, head of Mena analysis at Emirates NBD.

“However, this growth within the volume of activity seems to be underpinned by value discounting, instead of an improvement in underlying demand. As a result, corporations are reluctant to spice up hiring, and shoppers seem to stay cautious,” Ms. Haque noted.

The improvement within the economic tracker chiefly mirrored the trend in new business, as employment was generally unchanged throughout the month. Business conditions within the wholesale and retail sector improved at a series record pace, partly influenced by sharp value discounting and promotional activity, per the Emirates NBD survey.

Across the non-oil private sector, as a full, costs charged fell for the twelfth month running, it noted.

The rate of growth in total commercial activity, however, relieved from March’s four-year high in April however was among the sharpest registered since the series began in 2010.

The level is of incoming new business hyperbolic at the quickest rate since January 2015 in April at Sixty-Six point six.  New sales growth at wholesalers and retailers hit a record high of seventy point eight whereas construction corporations registered a relatively weaker rise at fifty-five end seven, albeit the strongest in 2019 thus far.

“Faster growth of latest work across the non-oil personal sector helped to carry the 12-month outlook for the activity to the strongest registered since the series began in 2010,” per Emirates NBD.

In distinction, employment within the non-oil personal sector was generally unchanged in April, reflective the continued trend showed over the past twelve months, during which the utilization Index has averaged precisely fifty. Job numbers fell in each the travel and business and construction sectors, and rose slightly in wholesale and retail, per the survey.

Evidence of growth within the retail sector was seen last month once Emaar Malls according to a seven percent rise in Q1 profits to $159 million, with the Dubai Mall attracting twenty-two million guests throughout the quarter.